TOP PICK
Excelsior
PROJECTED: 3-0
96%
CONF 87
WIN PROBABILITY
96%
Excelsior
3%
Seri
1%
Utrecht
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
89%
8%
3%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
98%
1%
1%
DL
25% WEIGHT
96%
3%
1%
FINAL BLEND
96%
3%
1%
PREDICTED SCORE
3 - 0
xG 3.38 vs 0.52
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
3-0
0.0%
2
2-0
0.0%
3
4-0
0.0%
4
5-0
0.0%
5
1-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
92%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
5%
BTTS NO
95%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
31 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
31 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
16 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
31 bookmakers · pre-match avg
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
CONTEXT
·
Excelsior 3–0 up with 35 minutes left and Utrecht reduced to 10 men since 31'; home win is near-certain.
·
3-goal lead past 55' with Utrecht down to 10 men (red card 31')
·
Utrecht's numerical disadvantage severely limits comeback probability
·
Excelsior scoring freely (3 goals in 55 min) vs weakened opposition
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
100%
Noah Naujoks
HOM · M · 9g/28
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
0
Excelsior
5
Seri
5
Utrecht
24 Agt
4-1
28 Jan
1-1
13 Nov
2-2
26 Jan
1-0
2 Okt
0-1
📖 pred.methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · pred.disclaimer