TOP PICK
Leeds
PROJECTED: 2-1
62%
CONF 58
WIN PROBABILITY
62%
Leeds
22%
Seri
16%
Burnley
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
69%
19%
13%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
72%
12%
16%
DL
25% WEIGHT
62%
22%
16%
FINAL BLEND
62%
22%
16%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 1
xG 2.18 vs 0.82
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
2-0
0.0%
2
1-0
0.0%
3
2-1
0.0%
4
1-1
0.0%
5
3-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
54%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
50%
BTTS NO
50%
💎 VALUE BETS
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
LEEDS FACTORS
+15%
Bookmaker odds (68% home win) slightly overvalue Leeds given thin xG context — AI 62% balances risk
CONTEXT
·
Leeds favoured at home but Burnley's desperate form and poor away record make them vulnerable; moderate confidence due to thin season-wide xG data.
·
Leeds +25 GD vs Burnley -34 GD — massive quality gap in defence
·
Burnley's away form (LLLDW) appalling; Leeds' home form mixed (WDLLW) but better on average
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
50%
Zian Flemming
AWY · 9g/25
2
50%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
HOM · 11g/31
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
Leeds
4
Seri
3
Burnley
18 Okt
2-0
28 Jan
0-0
14 Sep
0-1
2 Jan
3-1
29 Agt
1-1
📖 pred.methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · pred.disclaimer